NOAA’s Oil Spill Scenario

Spread Scenario

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has performed a simulation analysis on the possible dispersions of the oil spill, assuming leakage of 33,000 barrels per day that continues for 90 days. NOAA believes that under this scenario, there is an 80% probability that the oil slicks will move east of Florida and then north, effectively going around the peninsula into the Atlantic Ocean. There is a 20% chance that the oil spill could continue north up the Atlantic as far as Charleston, South Carolina, while also dispersing to the west to travel as far as Corpus Christi, Texas.  In the worst-case scenario, to which NOAA assigns a less than 1% probability, the oil slick could spread down to southern Mexico and the Caribbean region. We really should have immediately accepted the offer of the Netherlands to contain the spill quickly using their technology. Washington’s dithering and blame game puts our own interests and the interests of other countries at risk.