Experts Dial Down Hurricane Forecasts

The forecasting team at Colorado State University revised its forecast for the 2009 Atlantic storm season, reducing the number of predicted hurricanes from eleven to four. Based on El Niño events early in the season (the season begins on June 1, but historically, the date of the first hurricane is typically August 14), the storm season is likely to be calmer than originally thought. El Niño is the phenomenon of Pacific Ocean warming that affects global weather patterns. It tends to correlate with increased vertical wind shear that weakens tropical storms before they can form hurricanes.  The forecast now calls for ten named tropical storms, with four likely to become hurricanes and two of the four expected to become major hurricanes (meaning wind speeds of 111 mph or more). This is welcome news at any time, but particularly in this difficult economy, with fewer financial resources available to support disaster relief efforts.